Is IPO GMP Accurate? We Checked 104 IPO Listings
We compared the last grey market premium (GMP) recorded before listing with the actual listing-day opening price of 104 Mainboard and SME IPOs listed 31 December 2025 – 8 October 2026. Here's how often GMP got it right — and by how much it missed.
70%
of IPOs with a positive GMP listed above the issue price
7.8 pp
median gap between GMP-implied and actual listing gain
59%
listed within ±10 percentage points of their GMP
3.2 pp
median amount GMP overestimated the listing gain
Key findings
- GMP gets the direction right more often than not. When the last GMP was positive, the IPO opened above its issue price 69.9% of the time (Mainboard 73.8%, SME 63.2%).
- It tends to run a little hot. The average GMP implied a 21.8% listing gain; the average actual gain was 18.8%. The median IPO listed 3.2 percentage points below its GMP.
- A small GMP is close to a coin toss. When GMP implied a gain of 0–10%, only 43.9% of IPOs actually listed above the issue price, and the median listing gain was 0.0%.
- A big GMP is a strong signal — but not of the exact number. Every IPO with a GMP above 50% listed at a premium, yet the median listing gain (+56.1%) was well below the average GMP-implied +73.0%.
- GMP is more reliable for Mainboard than SME. 71.2% of Mainboard IPOs listed within 10 points of their GMP, versus 36.8% of SME IPOs (median miss 6.1 vs 16.2 points).
GMP-implied gain vs actual listing gain
Each dot is one IPO. Dots on the dashed line listed exactly where GMP pointed; dots below it listed lower than GMP implied. Correlation: r = 0.77. The SME cluster at +90% is the exchanges' cap on an SME IPO's listing-day opening price (90% above the issue price) — for those IPOs, GMP was capped by the rules, not wrong by that much.
How often IPOs listed at a premium, by GMP level
| GMP-implied gain | IPOs | Avg GMP-implied gain | Median actual gain | Listed above issue price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Below 0% | 1 | -17.0% | -9.9% | 0% |
| 0–10% | 41 | +3.7% | 0.0% | 43.9% |
| 10–25% | 26 | +17.3% | +15.8% | 80.8% |
| 25–50% | 25 | +35.4% | +33.1% | 88% |
| Above 50% | 11 | +73.0% | +56.1% | 100% |
Mainboard vs SME
| Mainboard | SME | |
|---|---|---|
| IPOs studied | 66 | 38 |
| Positive GMP → listed above issue | 73.8% | 63.2% |
| Median gap (GMP vs actual) | 6.1 pp | 16.2 pp |
| Within ±10 pp of GMP | 71.2% | 36.8% |
| Avg GMP-implied gain | +18.0% | +28.4% |
| Avg actual listing gain | +14.6% | +26.1% |
| Correlation (r) | 0.78 | 0.74 |
Full data: all 104 IPOs
Newest first. Download as CSV.
| IPO | Board | Listed | Issue price | Last GMP | GMP-implied | Day-1 open | Actual gain | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EverestIMS Technologies | SME | 2026-10-08 | ₹85 | ₹55 | +64.7% | ₹126 | +48.2% | -16.5 pp |
| Vishal Nirmiti | Mainboard | 2026-10-08 | ₹220 | ₹2 | +0.9% | ₹215 | -2.3% | -3.2 pp |
| Nityas Gems and Jewellery | Mainboard | 2026-10-08 | ₹75 | ₹1 | +1.3% | ₹80 | +6.7% | +5.3 pp |
| Black Opal Consultants | SME | 2026-10-07 | ₹197 | ₹88 | +44.7% | ₹200 | +1.5% | -43.1 pp |
| Shah Investor's Home | Mainboard | 2026-10-06 | ₹167 | ₹17 | +10.2% | ₹171 | +2.4% | -7.8 pp |
| Acme Universal Safezone 9 | SME | 2026-10-06 | ₹71 | ₹15 | +21.1% | ₹101 | +42.3% | +21.1 pp |
| SRIT India | Mainboard | 2026-10-06 | ₹130 | ₹50 | +38.5% | ₹148 | +13.8% | -24.6 pp |
| Pind Hospitality | SME | 2026-10-06 | ₹99 | ₹1 | +1.0% | ₹79.2 | -20.0% | -21.0 pp |
| Shivchem Agro | SME | 2026-10-06 | ₹62 | ₹2 | +3.2% | ₹62 | 0.0% | -3.2 pp |
| Orient Cables | Mainboard | 2026-10-05 | ₹272 | ₹123 | +45.2% | ₹450 | +65.4% | +20.2 pp |
| Snapdeal | Mainboard | 2026-10-05 | ₹32 | ₹1 | +3.1% | ₹28.32 | -11.5% | -14.6 pp |
| German Green Steel and Power (GTMT) | Mainboard | 2026-10-05 | ₹139 | ₹12 | +8.6% | ₹142 | +2.2% | -6.5 pp |
| A-One Steels India | Mainboard | 2026-10-01 | ₹405 | ₹35 | +8.6% | ₹455 | +12.3% | +3.7 pp |
| Moneyview | Mainboard | 2026-10-01 | ₹34 | ₹13 | +38.2% | ₹55 | +61.8% | +23.5 pp |
| Adroit Industries (India) | Mainboard | 2026-09-30 | ₹134 | ₹58 | +43.3% | ₹235 | +75.4% | +32.1 pp |
| ArMee Infotech | Mainboard | 2026-09-30 | ₹375 | ₹6 | +1.6% | ₹375 | 0.0% | -1.6 pp |
| Elevate Campuses | Mainboard | 2026-09-30 | ₹362 | ₹6 | +1.7% | ₹355.1 | -1.9% | -3.6 pp |
| Swastika Infra | Mainboard | 2026-09-30 | ₹185 | ₹6 | +3.2% | ₹200 | +8.1% | +4.9 pp |
| FX Multitech | SME | 2026-09-28 | ₹116 | ₹6 | +5.2% | ₹123.05 | +6.1% | +0.9 pp |
| Robokidz Eduventures | SME | 2026-09-28 | ₹106 | ₹77 | +72.6% | ₹201.4 | +90.0% | +17.4 pp |
| NSE | Mainboard | 2026-09-24 | ₹1785 | ₹43 | +2.4% | ₹1800 | +0.8% | -1.6 pp |
| Sonaselection | Mainboard | 2026-09-24 | ₹99 | ₹2 | +2.0% | ₹102.31 | +3.3% | +1.3 pp |
| Hero Motors | Mainboard | 2026-09-23 | ₹84 | ₹3 | +3.6% | ₹82 | -2.4% | -6.0 pp |
| Jindal Supreme (India) | Mainboard | 2026-09-23 | ₹93 | ₹32 | +34.4% | ₹120 | +29.0% | -5.4 pp |
| SS Retail | Mainboard | 2026-09-23 | ₹424 | ₹140 | +33.0% | ₹624 | +47.2% | +14.2 pp |
| Shakti Polytarp | SME | 2026-09-22 | ₹59 | ₹6 | +10.2% | ₹58.9 | -0.2% | -10.3 pp |
| Manika Plastech | Mainboard | 2026-09-21 | ₹43 | ₹2 | +4.7% | ₹43 | 0.0% | -4.7 pp |
| Veegaland Developers | Mainboard | 2026-09-18 | ₹140 | ₹5 | +3.6% | ₹154 | +10.0% | +6.4 pp |
| Maharaja & Speedex India | SME | 2026-09-18 | ₹186 | ₹28 | +15.1% | ₹250 | +34.4% | +19.4 pp |
| Raksan Transformers | SME | 2026-09-18 | ₹273 | ₹50 | +18.3% | ₹273 | 0.0% | -18.3 pp |
| Panchatv Bharat | SME | 2026-09-18 | ₹140 | ₹3 | +2.1% | ₹128.95 | -7.9% | -10.0 pp |
| Amtech Esters | SME | 2026-09-17 | ₹75 | ₹13 | +17.3% | ₹100 | +33.3% | +16.0 pp |
| LCC Projects | Mainboard | 2026-09-17 | ₹146 | ₹54 | +37.0% | ₹191.9 | +31.4% | -5.5 pp |
| Rentomojo | Mainboard | 2026-09-17 | ₹404 | ₹135 | +33.4% | ₹482.45 | +19.4% | -14.0 pp |
| Asset Reconstruction Co. (India) | Mainboard | 2026-09-17 | ₹139 | ₹15 | +10.8% | ₹139 | 0.0% | -10.8 pp |
| Manipal Payment and Identity Solutions | Mainboard | 2026-09-17 | ₹339 | ₹4 | +1.2% | ₹330 | -2.6% | -3.8 pp |
| Steamhouse India | Mainboard | 2026-09-17 | ₹81 | ₹20 | +24.7% | ₹94.5 | +16.7% | -8.0 pp |
| Karamtara Engineering | Mainboard | 2026-09-17 | ₹254 | ₹60 | +23.6% | ₹320 | +26.0% | +2.4 pp |
| Kanohar Electricals | Mainboard | 2026-09-16 | ₹632 | ₹223 | +35.3% | ₹685.5 | +8.5% | -26.8 pp |
| Glass Wall Systems (India) | Mainboard | 2026-09-16 | ₹182 | ₹66 | +36.3% | ₹194 | +6.6% | -29.7 pp |
| Pranav Constructions | Mainboard | 2026-09-15 | ₹124 | ₹44 | +35.5% | ₹165 | +33.1% | -2.4 pp |
| Deepa Jewellers | Mainboard | 2026-09-08 | ₹177 | ₹22 | +12.4% | ₹221 | +24.9% | +12.4 pp |
| Farm Peace | SME | 2026-09-08 | ₹59 | ₹50 | +84.8% | ₹112.1 | +90.0% | +5.3 pp |
| Fly-Hi Maritime Travels | SME | 2026-09-08 | ₹102 | ₹1 | +1.0% | ₹81.6 | -20.0% | -21.0 pp |
| Rays of Belief | Mainboard | 2026-09-08 | ₹239 | ₹20 | +8.4% | ₹239 | 0.0% | -8.4 pp |
| Purple Style Labs | Mainboard | 2026-09-07 | ₹575 | ₹2 | +0.3% | ₹535 | -7.0% | -7.3 pp |
| Phychem Technologies | SME | 2026-09-07 | ₹54 | ₹1 | +1.9% | ₹56 | +3.7% | +1.9 pp |
| Paluck Technologies | SME | 2026-09-04 | ₹48 | ₹20 | +41.7% | ₹46.8 | -2.5% | -44.2 pp |
| Priority Jewels | Mainboard | 2026-09-04 | ₹200 | ₹31 | +15.5% | ₹230 | +15.0% | -0.5 pp |
| ESDS Software Solution | Mainboard | 2026-09-04 | ₹429 | ₹255 | +59.4% | ₹757 | +76.5% | +17.0 pp |
| Lumino Industries | Mainboard | 2026-09-03 | ₹82 | ₹50 | +61.0% | ₹110 | +34.1% | -26.8 pp |
| Kwick Forensic Solutions | SME | 2026-09-03 | ₹90 | ₹75 | +83.3% | ₹150 | +66.7% | -16.7 pp |
| Annu Projects | Mainboard | 2026-09-02 | ₹99 | ₹4 | +4.0% | ₹72 | -27.3% | -31.3 pp |
| Skyways Air Services | Mainboard | 2026-09-01 | ₹138 | ₹37 | +26.8% | ₹124 | -10.1% | -37.0 pp |
| Symbiotec Pharmalab | Mainboard | 2026-09-01 | ₹988 | ₹260 | +26.3% | ₹988 | 0.0% | -26.3 pp |
| Hy-Tech Engineers | Mainboard | 2026-09-01 | ₹53 | ₹40 | +75.5% | ₹75 | +41.5% | -34.0 pp |
| Dhanwel Hybrid Seeds | SME | 2026-08-26 | ₹99 | ₹5 | +5.0% | ₹99 | 0.0% | -5.0 pp |
| Mopshop Distribution | SME | 2026-08-26 | ₹138 | ₹2 | +1.4% | ₹137 | -0.7% | -2.2 pp |
| Gaja Alternative Asset Management | Mainboard | 2026-08-26 | ₹160 | ₹15 | +9.4% | ₹185 | +15.6% | +6.3 pp |
| Sunshine Pictures | Mainboard | 2026-08-25 | ₹360 | ₹80 | +22.2% | ₹395.9 | +10.0% | -12.3 pp |
| Shankesh Jewellers | Mainboard | 2026-08-25 | ₹93 | ₹2 | +2.1% | ₹103.3 | +11.1% | +8.9 pp |
| Lalithaa Jewellery Mart | Mainboard | 2026-08-24 | ₹201 | ₹55 | +27.4% | ₹265 | +31.8% | +4.5 pp |
| Technocrats Plasma Systems | SME | 2026-08-21 | ₹132 | ₹31 | +23.5% | ₹230 | +74.2% | +50.8 pp |
| Shiprocket | Mainboard | 2026-08-19 | ₹97 | ₹34 | +35.0% | ₹131 | +35.0% | 0.0 pp |
| Q&T Foods | SME | 2026-08-19 | ₹115 | ₹10 | +8.7% | ₹115 | 0.0% | -8.7 pp |
| Milky Mist | Mainboard | 2026-08-18 | ₹140 | ₹22 | +15.7% | ₹165 | +17.9% | +2.1 pp |
| Molbio Diagnostics | Mainboard | 2026-08-17 | ₹807 | ₹138 | +17.1% | ₹980 | +21.4% | +4.3 pp |
| Leap India | Mainboard | 2026-08-14 | ₹159 | ₹16 | +10.1% | ₹165.9 | +4.3% | -5.7 pp |
| LAPL Automotive | SME | 2026-08-13 | ₹94 | ₹37 | +39.4% | ₹135 | +43.6% | +4.3 pp |
| Fusion Klassroom Edutech | SME | 2026-08-07 | ₹159 | ₹4 | +2.5% | ₹170 | +6.9% | +4.4 pp |
| MV Electrosystems | Mainboard | 2026-08-06 | ₹425 | ₹115 | +27.1% | ₹520 | +22.4% | -4.7 pp |
| H. R. Hygiene Products | SME | 2026-08-05 | ₹88 | ₹2 | +2.3% | ₹88 | 0.0% | -2.3 pp |
| Poojaa Precision Engg | SME | 2026-08-04 | ₹301 | ₹230 | +76.4% | ₹470 | +56.1% | -20.3 pp |
| Xtranet Technologies | Mainboard | 2026-07-30 | ₹127 | ₹10 | +7.9% | ₹136 | +7.1% | -0.8 pp |
| Indo-MIM | Mainboard | 2026-07-30 | ₹485 | ₹190 | +39.2% | ₹700 | +44.3% | +5.2 pp |
| Shree Balaji (Mala) Textiles | SME | 2026-07-29 | ₹70 | ₹16 | +22.9% | ₹133 | +90.0% | +67.1 pp |
| Caliber Mining and Logistics | Mainboard | 2026-07-24 | ₹424 | ₹80 | +18.9% | ₹500.25 | +18.0% | -0.9 pp |
| Sotefin Bharat | SME | 2026-07-23 | ₹187 | ₹13 | +7.0% | ₹205 | +9.6% | +2.7 pp |
| Millworks Technologies | SME | 2026-07-21 | ₹331 | ₹395 | +119.3% | ₹628.9 | +90.0% | -29.3 pp |
| SBI Funds Management | Mainboard | 2026-07-21 | ₹574 | ₹89 | +15.5% | ₹613.3 | +6.8% | -8.7 pp |
| Devson Catalyst | SME | 2026-07-16 | ₹118 | ₹45 | +38.1% | ₹196.15 | +66.2% | +28.1 pp |
| Laser Power and Infra | Mainboard | 2026-07-16 | ₹214 | ₹35 | +16.4% | ₹250 | +16.8% | +0.5 pp |
| Kusumgar | Mainboard | 2026-07-15 | ₹419 | ₹158 | +37.7% | ₹569 | +35.8% | -1.9 pp |
| Knack Packaging | Mainboard | 2026-07-08 | ₹170 | ₹28 | +16.5% | ₹188 | +10.6% | -5.9 pp |
| Kratikal Tech | SME | 2026-07-07 | ₹135 | ₹41 | +30.4% | ₹192 | +42.2% | +11.8 pp |
| Aastha Spintex | Mainboard | 2026-07-06 | ₹136 | ₹6 | +4.4% | ₹130 | -4.4% | -8.8 pp |
| CSM Technologies | Mainboard | 2026-07-02 | ₹113 | ₹4 | +3.5% | ₹113 | 0.0% | -3.5 pp |
| Turtlemint Fintech Solutions | Mainboard | 2026-06-29 | ₹152 | ₹2 | +1.3% | ₹134.9 | -11.3% | -12.6 pp |
| Liotech Industries | SME | 2026-06-24 | ₹321 | ₹55 | +17.1% | ₹257 | -19.9% | -37.1 pp |
| Horizon Reclaim (India) | SME | 2026-06-19 | ₹103 | ₹57 | +55.3% | ₹151 | +46.6% | -8.7 pp |
| Susan Electricals India | SME | 2026-06-18 | ₹127 | ₹64 | +50.4% | ₹186 | +46.5% | -3.9 pp |
| CMR Green Technologies | Mainboard | 2026-06-10 | ₹192 | ₹60 | +31.3% | ₹268 | +39.6% | +8.3 pp |
| Vegorama Punjabi Angithi | SME | 2026-05-27 | ₹77 | ₹15 | +19.5% | ₹118.1 | +53.4% | +33.9 pp |
| Bagmane Prime Office REIT | Mainboard | 2026-05-14 | ₹100 | ₹4.4 | +4.4% | ₹103.4 | +3.4% | -1.0 pp |
| Recode Studios | SME | 2026-05-12 | ₹158 | ₹48 | +30.4% | ₹213.1 | +34.9% | +4.5 pp |
| OnEMI Technology (Kissht) | Mainboard | 2026-05-08 | ₹171 | ₹28 | +16.4% | ₹190 | +11.1% | -5.3 pp |
| Central Mine Planning & Design Institute | Mainboard | 2026-03-30 | ₹172 | ₹1 | +0.6% | ₹160 | -7.0% | -7.6 pp |
| Raajmarg Infra InvIT | Mainboard | 2026-03-24 | ₹100 | ₹3.25 | +3.3% | ₹108 | +8.0% | +4.8 pp |
| Innovision | Mainboard | 2026-03-23 | ₹519 | ₹-88 | -17.0% | ₹467.7 | -9.9% | +7.1 pp |
| SEDEMAC Mechatronics | Mainboard | 2026-03-11 | ₹1352 | ₹78 | +5.8% | ₹1535 | +13.5% | +7.8 pp |
| Gaudium IVF & Women Health | Mainboard | 2026-02-27 | ₹79 | ₹2 | +2.5% | ₹83 | +5.1% | +2.5 pp |
| Kanishk Aluminium India | SME | 2026-02-04 | ₹73 | ₹4 | +5.5% | ₹58.4 | -20.0% | -25.5 pp |
| INDO SMC | SME | 2026-01-21 | ₹149 | ₹25 | +16.8% | ₹149 | 0.0% | -16.8 pp |
| Nanta Tech | SME | 2025-12-31 | ₹220 | ₹46 | +20.9% | ₹234 | +6.4% | -14.6 pp |
Methodology
- GMP-implied gain = the last GMP we recorded before the listing date ÷ the upper end of the price band. Only GMPs recorded within 7 days of listing count.
- Actual listing gain = (listing-day opening price − upper price band) ÷ upper price band. Opening prices come from exchange daily price data (NSE/BSE, via Yahoo Finance) for the listing date itself; we kept an IPO only when that day's price could be verified.
- Miss = actual listing gain − GMP-implied gain, in percentage points (pp). Negative means the IPO listed lower than GMP suggested.
- We looked at 318 Mainboard and SME IPOs that listed in this period and excluded:
- 74 where the no GMP was recorded before listing
- 64 where the listing-day price could not be verified against exchange data
- 69 where the last GMP was ₹0 (our feed also reports 0 when it has no quote, so these are ambiguous)
- 7 where the last GMP was more than 7 days before listing
- GMP is an unofficial grey-market quote, not an exchange price. This study describes past listings and is not investment advice.
Use this research
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